Iran threatens ships in Strait of Hormuz without permission

Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Navy Commander has threatened to target any ship passing through the Strait of Hormuz without Iranian permission. Odds for the UK sending warships by April 30, 2026, sit at 8.5% YES on the UK warship transit market.

The threat is a direct escalation. Odds have stabilized at 8.5% YES but were as high as 12% just 24 hours ago. Roughly 20% of the world’s oil passes through the Strait of Hormuz daily.

Volume is modest: $5,648 in USDC traded over the past 24 hours. It takes just $304 to move the market 5 percentage points, a thin order book where even small bets shift the odds. The largest single price move was a 2-point spike at 4:25 PM.

A YES share priced at 8.5¢ pays $1 if the UK sends warships by April 30, a 11.7x return. To justify buying at this price, you’d need to believe the UK will commit naval resources in the next 12 days. That’s a narrow window, and the UK has not signaled any deployment so far.

Watch for announcements from the UK Ministry of Defence or allied naval movements. Any confirmation of a frigate deployment would likely spike the odds given how thin the order book is.

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