Israel is investigating four IDF soldiers for allegedly passing information to Iran, pushing the odds of Israeli military action against Iran by April 21 to 7.8% YES on the April 21 market, up from 4% just 24 hours ago.
The market sits days away from resolution. Odds spiked 7 points after the probe’s announcement, with traders pricing in the possibility of Israeli preemptive strikes in response to the espionage threat. The April 14 market is now inactive, making April 21 the immediate focus.
The investigation has not moved Trump’s military operations against Iran or Reza Pahlavi’s potential return to Iran. The latter remains at a low 4% YES for a June return.
The soldier probe points to vulnerabilities in Israel’s intelligence operations at a moment of high tension with Iran. At 7.8%, a YES share pays $1 if Israel acts by April 21, a 6.9x return. That payout could attract traders betting on escalation, particularly if further espionage details surface.
Watch for statements from Prime Minister Netanyahu or the IDF. Any signal of military readiness could move odds sharply in the next few days.
