Iran’s deputy parliament speaker, Ali Nikzad, declared Iran will not make concessions to the US, saying Iran will use all tools to secure its rights. The US-Iran permanent peace deal by April 22 market is at 17.5% YES, down from 16% yesterday.
Nikzad’s statement has pushed related markets lower. The April 30 peace deal market is at 39%, while the ceasefire by April 30 market is at 38.5% YES, down from 36% a week ago. The uranium enrichment agreement by April 30 is priced at 30.0% YES.
These markets are thinly traded. The ceasefire market has $54,670 in actual USDC volume, and only $841 is needed to shift it 5 points, making it susceptible to swings from large trades. The peace deal market is more liquid, with $543,694 in daily USDC and $63,459 required to move 5 points.
Iran’s refusal to concede anything narrows the path to a near-term deal. At 12.5¢, a YES share on the April 22 peace deal pays $1 if it resolves, an 8x return. For that to pay off, you’d need to believe a diplomatic breakthrough is days away, which is hard to square with Nikzad’s rhetoric and the current stalemate.
Watch for statements from CENTCOM or new diplomatic efforts from intermediaries like Oman or Qatar. Any softening in Iran’s position or US concessions could move the odds quickly.
