Three Iranian oil tankers under US sanctions have left the Gulf carrying five million barrels of crude through the Strait of Hormuz. The odds of Strait of Hormuz traffic returning to normal by April 30 are now at 69% YES, down from 60% yesterday.
Market reaction
The April 30 market here dropped 10 points in the last 24 hours. The May 31 market here holds at 91.5% YES. The 32-point gap between April and May tells you traders expect the resolution to come in May, not sooner.
Volume on the April 30 contract hit $10,250 in USDC, with $354 in order book depth to move the price 5 points. May 31 is thinner, requiring $3,730 for the same movement. The largest single move was a 4-point drop at 6:46 PM, likely driven by skepticism about immediate normalization.
Why it matters
Three sanctioned tankers passing through the Strait suggests a crack in the blockade’s enforcement and a possible easing of tensions. That said, this is tier-3 source news, so the signal is noisy.
What to watch
Statements from US 5th Fleet or the IRGC Navy confirming or denying the blockade’s effectiveness. Any official acknowledgment of a ceasefire or reduction in naval operations would move these odds fast. A diplomatic breakthrough within 14 days is the specific bet the April contract requires.
Buying YES at 69¢ pays $1 if resolved, a 2.0x return.
