Iran’s regime fall odds rise to 14% amid deepening economic troubles: FT

Iran’s economic troubles deepen amid the ongoing conflict, with regime fall by June 30 at 13.5% YES. A week ago, this was higher at 20%.

Current odds reflect the impact of conflict and sanctions, despite temporary stability from oil revenues. Iran’s GDP is forecasted to contract by 2.8%, unlike regional peers. The Iranian Regime Fall market saw a slight increase from 12% to 14% after news of economic weakening, suggesting traders are adjusting expectations of instability.

Trading volume is $59,602/day, lower than the face value of $439,688. It takes $195,733 to move the market by 5 points, showing substantial depth. The largest move over the past day was a 1-point spike, indicating traders are cautious but alert to regime fragility.

The economic decline pressures the Iranian regime, but the market doubts an imminent collapse. At 14%, a YES share pays $1 if the regime falls by June 30 — a potential 7x return. Traders need signs of IRGC fractures or a leadership crisis for this to be a viable bet. Without clear instability signals, it remains speculative.

Watch for IRGC defections, unexpected Assembly of Experts meetings, or Mojtaba Khamenei’s absence from public view. These could shift market odds.

Markets Impacted

• Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? — currently 13.5% YES