Israeli strikes in south Lebanon killed four paramedics amid ongoing conflict with Hezbollah. The ceasefire by April 30 market sits at 93.7% YES, up from 45% a week ago.
The attack occurred just two days after the truce was announced. The ceasefire by April 30 market now shows 93.7% YES, with a 13-point spike earlier today. The June 30 market is at 96.6% YES, suggesting traders expect the ceasefire to hold even if short-term violations occur.
Volume on the April 30 market is $1,041,878 in USDC; the June 30 market has $164,013. It takes $50,093 to move April’s odds by 5 points, compared to $135,129 for June. The thinner April book means new information about ceasefire violations could shift those odds quickly.
The targeting of medical personnel raises direct questions about Israel’s adherence to the ceasefire terms. At 94¢, a YES share for an April 30 ceasefire pays $1, a 1.06x return. That bet requires hostilities to cease within the next 14 days.
Watch for official statements from the IDF or Hezbollah on further ceasefire violations. Whether this attack is an isolated incident or part of a broader pattern should become clear in the next few days.
