Sanctioned ships pass through Strait of Hormuz despite US blockade

Sanctioned ships are reportedly passing through the Strait of Hormuz despite a US blockade. The market on Trump announcing the blockade’s lifting by May 31 sits at 63% YES, down from 72% yesterday.

The 9-point drop reflects trader skepticism about the blockade’s effectiveness. A 15% expected move signals doubt that Trump will announce the blockade’s end soon. The May 31 market saw a 5-point spike at 3:50 PM yesterday.

The blockade announcement market dropped, but the UK warship market hasn’t moved, sitting at 1.8% YES. Traders see almost no chance of UK involvement before April 30.

The blockade announcement market trades $95,253 in USDC daily, with $8,975 required to move the price 5 points, a sign of reasonable liquidity. The UK warship market is much thinner at $783 for a similar price shift.

Sanctioned vessels slipping through a US naval blockade raises direct questions about enforcement capacity. At 63¢, a YES share pays $1 if Trump announces the blockade’s end by May 31, a 1.59x return. That bet requires confidence in diplomatic progress within 37 days.

Watch for White House statements, Iranian Foreign Ministry responses, or Pentagon briefings. Any of these could move the odds quickly.