Donald Trump anticipates a US-Iran deal “in a day or two,” according to Axios. The market for Trump agreeing to Iranian oil sanction relief in April is at 65.5% YES, up from 34% yesterday.
Trump’s stated timeline is pushing the Iranian Demands Trump Agreement April contract to 65.5% YES. A $330 shift would move prices 5 points, so a single large order could still jolt this market. The 2% YES odds on the diplomatic meeting location market remain flat, meaning traders aren’t pricing in a location-based breakthrough.
Trading volume in the sanction relief market is $1,975/day in actual USDC, with the largest recent move being a 2-point drop. Liquidity is decent but thin enough that a moderately sized order could shift prices.
Trump’s statement points toward a possible breakthrough, but the specifics matter. A YES share at 65.5¢ pays 2.78x if Trump agrees by end of April. The key sticking points are nuclear dismantlement and regional proxies. Unless those are resolved, the market could snap back.
Watch for official statements from the White House and Iranian officials. Any confirmation of asset unfreezing or oil sanction relief would move this market fast. A Trump post or White House press release could be the next catalyst.
