Britain’s Foreign Secretary Yvette Cooper warned Iran not to “hold world economy hostage,” amid ongoing tensions involving US and Israeli strikes on Iranian targets. The probability of no US-Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30 sits at 17% YES, up from 9% yesterday.
The diplomatic meeting market saw a sharp rise, with volume at $6,833 in USDC traded per day. The largest move was a 4-point drop, suggesting traders remain cautious about the likelihood of meetings. At 17%, the market still prices in some belief that diplomatic engagement could happen. Meanwhile, the US-Iran peace deal by April 30 contract collapsed to just 1% YES, down from 10% a day ago.
With only six days left on the April 30 contract, that drop is unsurprising. The May 31 contract sits at 28%, meaning traders see a real window opening after April. Volume at $854,588 in USDC shows strong participation but skepticism about a fast resolution. The June 30 contract at 40% prices in more room for a deal on a longer timeline.
The UK’s emphasis on economic measures rather than military escalation fits with the market’s reluctance to price in a quick peace deal. Buying YES on the April 30 contract costs 1¢, offering a 100x return, but the odds reflect how unlikely that is. Traders appear to be waiting for concrete diplomatic moves rather than speculating.
Watch for any confirmation of diplomatic talks via official channels like the White House or Iranian foreign ministry. Confirmed meetings or formal negotiations would move these contracts sharply.
