The US Ambassador to the UN claims the IRGC is “in absolute disarray” due to US naval blockades and leadership strikes. Kharg Island control by April 30 sits at 4% YES, and the ceasefire breakdown market by April 21 has jumped to 18% YES from 8% the day before.

## Market reaction

The Kharg Island April 30 contract ticked up to 4% YES from 3% a day earlier. The June 30 contract is at 16.5% YES. The 7-point gap between the April 30 and May 31 contracts suggests traders expect the most likely window for developments around Kharg Island is May.

The Strait of Hormuz traffic normalization sub-market odds remain undefined, with little trading activity so far.

On the ceasefire front, odds of Trump announcing a broken ceasefire by April 21 surged to 18% YES from 8% the prior day. The largest single move was a 3-point spike, pointing to increased trader expectation of a formal ceasefire breakdown.

## Why it matters

The Ambassador’s claim, from a Tier 1 source, implies a stronger US naval position and a weakened IRGC. If accurate, this raises the probability of shifts in control over Kharg Island and continued disruption in the Strait of Hormuz. With a YES share at 12¢ on Kharg Island by June 30, a resolution would yield a 8.3x return, which explains why traders betting on continued US pressure are buying at these levels.

## What to watch

Traders should monitor CENTCOM updates on Kharg Island and further US Navy actions. Trump’s next public statement or any Iranian military response could move these contracts sharply.

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