US Commerce Secretary Lutnick calls Canada “sucks,” threatens to end trade deal

US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick called Canada “sucks” and threatened to end the trade deal, while the Polymarket contract on whether the S&P 500 opens up or down on April 15 sits at 100.0% YES.

## Market reaction

The S&P 500 movement on April 15 contract is at 100% YES for a positive open. The sub-market for April 15 trades at $12,373 actual USDC daily, with $12,379 in face value volume. The largest move in recent sessions was negligible, and positions have not shifted meaningfully.

## Why it matters

Lutnick’s comments could signal an escalation in trade tensions that affects USMCA renewal talks. At 100% YES, the contract prices in no disruption from this rhetoric, but any concrete policy follow-through (tariff proposals, formal trade review) would force a repricing. Geopolitical rhetoric at this level from a sitting Commerce Secretary has direct implications for trade policy timelines.

## What to watch

Official responses from Canadian trade representatives could shift these odds. More specifically, Lutnick’s next public statements and any House votes related to tariffs are the near-term catalysts. Domestic economic policy shifts tied to US-Canada trade would also matter.

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