The United States is anticipated to conduct more extensive strikes against Iran than those carried out on Tuesday, according to sources. This escalation comes amid the breakdown of a ceasefire agreement following Iranian attacks on commercial tankers in the Strait of Hormuz. The ongoing conflict has seen U.S. airstrikes on Iranian military sites and retaliatory missile and drone strikes by Iran on U.S. bases. President Trump declared the ceasefire over on July 8, 2026, marking a significant escalation in hostilities.

Markets are reflecting this heightened military activity, with implications for the likelihood of IAEA nuclear site visits in Iran. The probability of an IAEA visit by December 31 has decreased to 40%, down from 44% just 24 hours ago. This decrease appears consistent with concerns over security conditions and potential access denials for IAEA inspectors amid the intensified U.S. military operations.

Key Takeaways

• Market activity suggests decreased confidence in IAEA visits to Iranian nuclear sites by the end of the year.
• The escalation of U.S. military strikes is consistent with decreasing YES outcomes for IAEA site visit markets.
• Current pricing indicates market participants view the security situation as a significant barrier to inspections.

What to Watch

The unfolding military actions may impact both the short-term and long-term IAEA visit probabilities. Key actors to monitor include IAEA Director General Rafael Mariano Grossi and Iranian officials like Mohammad Eslami. Future developments, such as diplomatic interventions or changes in military engagements, could alter market expectations. Additionally, any statements from the IAEA or Iranian authorities regarding inspection access will be critical indicators of potential shifts in market sentiment.

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