Utkarsh Ahuja expects a gradual Bitcoin recovery as US elections, Fed policy and Binance withdrawals test market confidence.
Bitcoin has already reached its cyclical bottom and is entering the early stages of a renewed uptrend, Utkarsh Ahuja, founder and managing partner at Moon Pursuit Capital, said in market commentary shared with Crypto Briefing ahead of Tuesday’s US midterm elections.
Ahuja cautioned against making directional predictions based solely on election results, arguing that markets respond more to their implications for liquidity, interest rates and the cost of capital.
Political uncertainty combined with expectations of tighter monetary policy could pressure risk assets, although markets could rally if the outcome proves less disruptive than feared.
He expects a gradual recovery with intermittent corrections rather than an uninterrupted rally. Friday’s US employment report will provide another test as investors assess the Federal Reserve’s December policy decision.
Binance outflows could benefit rival exchanges
Ahuja said the billions withdrawn from Binance following its reopening remain relatively small compared with the exchange’s total holdings. The more important question, he argued, is where those assets are moving.
Binance recorded approximately $5.3 billion in net outflows following the October 29 hack, while competing exchanges including OKX and Bybit reported inflows.
Ahuja said the withdrawals could provide competitors with an opportunity as investors diversify across platforms offering stronger custody, transparency and risk management.
The key question is whether the incident remains a Binance confidence problem or develops into a broader loss of trust in centralized exchanges, he said, adding that sustained fund flows and trading volumes will provide a clearer picture.
Fed policy and Iran tensions remain risks
Ahuja pointed to US economic growth of 3.4% in the third quarter and annual PCE inflation of 3.6% in September as evidence that monetary policy could remain restrictive.
The Federal Reserve held rates at 3.75% to 4% in October, although two policymakers favored an increase. Ahuja said the debate now centers on whether another hike will be necessary in December.
He also identified the Iran conflict as an inflation risk. While renewed hopes for US and Iran diplomacy have pushed oil prices lower, further escalation or disruptions to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz could drive energy prices higher and reinforce restrictive monetary policy.
Ahuja cautioned that Bitcoin could continue trading as a risk asset during periods of geopolitical stress, with investors initially reducing exposure to raise liquidity.
