Sam Altman admits he overestimated the speed of AI disruption

OpenAI CEO Sam Altman said he overestimated how quickly artificial intelligence would disrupt the economy, acknowledging that businesses and consumers have adapted more slowly than he expected after the release of GPT 4.

Speaking on David Senra’s Founders podcast, Altman said he originally expected GPT 4 to quickly put established software businesses at risk.

“I thought when we got to GPT-4, which was back in 2023, that very quickly after that there was going to be much more disruption,” Altman said.

Instead, he said economic inertia has slowed adoption as customers continue buying from the same companies and using familiar tools.

Altman described the slower transition as positive, arguing that it could make the economic effects of AI easier for society to absorb.

“We’ve all been too ambitious on timelines,” he said, adding that even with rapid improvements in AI technology, society and the economy will adapt more slowly.

Altman also acknowledged that his own habits illustrate the problem. Despite having access to OpenAI’s coding tools, he said he still often uses computers in much the same way he has for years.

The comments come as technology companies continue committing large amounts of capital to AI infrastructure based on expectations that adoption will accelerate across businesses and the broader economy.

Altman separately warned about another risk from AI adoption, the concentration of power among a small number of companies, models, or individuals.

He said restricting access to powerful AI in the name of safety could concentrate control among a handful of companies, describing that outcome as an “anti human” approach. Altman argued that people should remain in control of how the technology develops and is used.