Anthropic has overtaken SpaceX on Polymarket as the favored contender for the largest IPO by market cap in 2026. This shift follows Anthropic’s announcement of a $30 trillion total addressable market and a significant $45 billion compute deal. The Polymarket activity reflects market participants’ growing confidence in Anthropic’s potential IPO valuation exceeding the current record set by SpaceX, which went public in June 2026 with a valuation of approximately $1.77 trillion. Anthropic’s recent private funding round valued the company at $965 billion, and discussions are underway regarding a potential IPO valuation around $2 trillion.
Key Takeaways
- Market activity suggests Anthropic is now viewed as the leading candidate for the largest IPO by market cap in 2026.
- Anthropic’s recent announcements are consistent with expectations of a higher IPO valuation, surpassing SpaceX’s record.
- Polymarket’s pricing indicates that participants see a higher probability of Anthropic achieving an IPO valuation beyond $1.25 trillion.
What to Watch
Market participants will closely monitor Anthropic’s next steps, including any updates on its IPO filing with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) or announcements regarding pricing and timing. Key indicators that could influence market perceptions include further disclosures about Anthropic’s financial performance and strategic partnerships. Observers will also watch for external factors such as overall market conditions for tech IPOs and any regulatory developments that could impact Anthropic’s timeline and valuation prospects.