Asset managers hold over 1.5M Bitcoin amid US-Iran tensions

Asset managers now hold over 1.5 million Bitcoin. The market for Bitcoin reaching a new all-time high by December 31 is at 18% YES.

The accumulation coincides with US-Iran tensions in the Persian Gulf. The market for Bitcoin hitting an all-time high by June 30 is at 3% YES, showing skepticism about near-term peaks. Odds climb to 10% YES for September 30, suggesting traders expect a catalyst later in the year.

The market for Bitcoin reaching between $78,000 and $80,000 on April 15, 2026, is fully priced at 100% YES. The term structure shows traders are focused on the latter part of the year for larger price moves.

Trading volume in the all-time high market is $3,642 in USDC over the past 24 hours, with activity expected to pick up between September and December. The largest move was a 1-point spike in the September 30 market.

At 18¢, a YES share for a new all-time high by December 31 pays $1, a 5.56x return. The geopolitical situation makes Bitcoin more attractive as a hedge against fiat volatility, particularly if the Iran situation escalates.

Watch for ETF inflows and changes in Fed policy. The next FOMC minutes and ETF activity reports could shift sentiment toward a new high.

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