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Prediction markets give Bitcoin a 2% shot at $200,000 in 2026, a record low
Traders on Kalshi and Polymarket have all but written off a six-figure moonshot this year and are betting on smaller moves instead
Traders on prediction markets now give Bitcoin just a 2% chance of reaching $200,000 in 2026, a record low for those contracts.
What the markets are pricing
On Kalshi, the contract asking whether Bitcoin will trade above $200,000 by January 1, 2027, was priced at 2% as of October 2026. Polymarket tells a similar story, with odds for the same milestone sitting somewhere between less than 1% and 2%.
The Polymarket figure is down from around 4%.
These particular contracts settle against the CF Bitcoin Real-Time Index, a benchmark price feed for Bitcoin.
Bitcoin was trading near $82,000 to $84,000 in early October 2026, so reaching $200,000 would require the price to more than double before the calendar flips.
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Where the money is actually going
Contracts betting Bitcoin hits $90,000 carry a 63% implied probability. The $100,000 contract sits at 28% odds.
Further up the ladder, contracts covering the $150,000 to $190,000 range are trading in the single digits.
Total volume across the related Polymarket contracts exceeds $74 million.
A slow fade, not a sudden collapse
Data from September already showed the $200,000 contract priced at 2%, suggesting expectations had cooled well before October arrived. Polymarket’s slide from around 4% to its current range shows traders steadily trimming their bets on an aggressive rally rather than panic-selling them.