Carrier Global forecasts data center sales to rise 50% in 2027

Carrier Global expects its data center sales to grow about 50% in 2027. That follows a year in which the business roughly doubled.

For a company best known for heating and air conditioning, that is a striking growth rate. It turns out the hottest real estate in tech is the room full of servers, and somebody has to keep it cool.

The forecast puts Carrier (NYSE: CARR) squarely among the industrial companies benefiting from the data center buildout. The numbers behind it suggest the demand is already showing up in contracts, not just in slide decks.

The numbers behind the forecast

Carrier projected full-year 2026 data center sales of approximately $2 billion, nearly double its previous levels. The company reported third-quarter 2026 data center sales exceeding $550 million in its earnings release on October 29, 2026.

Orders are moving even faster than sales. Year-to-date data center orders surpassed $3 billion, up roughly 350% year over year.

Third-quarter data center orders alone climbed about 300% from the same period a year earlier. Sales count what has shipped. Orders count what customers have committed to buy, and those commitments are growing at several times the pace of revenue.

Carrier’s total backlog reached a record of more than $8.5 billion. That figure excludes certain minimums tied to long-term agreements, so it does not capture every committed dollar.

Chief Executive David Gitlin laid out the forward view at a Morgan Stanley conference on September 16, 2026. He said he anticipated second-half 2026 data center sales of $1.5 billion and revenue for 2027 reaching at least $3 billion.

The math lines up neatly. Growth of about 50% on a base near $2 billion lands right around that $3 billion floor for 2027.

A hyperscaler deal and a Texas factory

One of the biggest pieces of the story is a new $3 billion agreement with a hyperscaler. That term refers to the giant cloud operators that build and run data centers at enormous scale.

The deal includes minimum volume commitments. The customer has agreed to buy at least a set amount, which gives Carrier more visibility than a standard purchase order would.

Carrier is also adding manufacturing capacity to meet demand. The company plans a new chiller plant in Fort Worth, Texas, which is expected to add about 1,500 jobs.

The product lineup is scaling up to match. Carrier’s new offerings include 2 MW and 3 MW air-cooled chillers, along with coolant distribution units.

Why an HVAC company is suddenly a data center story

Carrier describes itself as a climate and energy solutions business, with HVAC as its core. For decades, that meant offices, homes, and commercial buildings.

Data centers flip that formula. A typical office needs cooling so people stay comfortable. A data center needs cooling so millions of dollars of hardware keep running.

What this means for investors and the industry

For Carrier shareholders, the key detail is the gap between orders and sales. Year-to-date orders above $3 billion already exceed projected full-year 2026 sales of about $2 billion.

The hyperscaler agreement strengthens that case. Minimum volume commitments reduce the risk that a big customer simply walks away if its spending plans change.

Still, forecasts are forecasts. The 50% growth figure and the 2027 target of at least $3 billion are management projections, and they depend on customers continuing to build at the current pace.

Execution is the other variable. Building a new chiller plant and staffing it with roughly 1,500 workers is a significant undertaking, and any delays could slow how quickly backlog turns into revenue.

There is also concentration risk to watch. A $3 billion deal with a single hyperscaler is a big win, but it also ties a meaningful slice of the business to one customer’s capital spending decisions.

The things to watch from here are straightforward. Investors will want to see whether quarterly orders keep growing, whether the backlog continues to climb past $8.5 billion, and whether the Fort Worth plant comes online on schedule.