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Texas Senate election margin of victory ↗

Democrat James Talarico hits record high in Texas Senate race

Kalshi · 1h ago
YES 25% ▲1¢ since publish
Updated 4min ago
Democrat James Talarico hits record high in Texas Senate race
Photo: Vitaliy Haiduk / Pexels

Democrat James Talarico has reached a record high in the Texas Senate race, according to recent reports. This development comes as the race for Texas’s U.S. Senate seat intensifies, with Talarico challenging Republican Ken Paxton. While no official results or certified vote counts are available, the market on Kalshi has shown Talarico at a commanding 76% as of November 2. Public polling suggests a tight contest, with variations depending on the source. Some polls have shown Talarico leading, albeit within the margin of error, reflecting a highly competitive race.

Key Takeaways

  • Market data appears to show increased support for James Talarico, with his odds reaching a record high.
  • The Texas Senate race remains closely contested, with polls indicating Talarico’s slight lead within the margin of error.
  • The competitive nature of the race suggests a potential decrease in the likelihood of a Republican victory by a significant margin.

What to Watch

Observers should closely monitor developments in the Texas Senate race, particularly any shifts in polling data that could influence market perceptions. As election day approaches, further public polling and market reactions will be key indicators of the final outcome. Additionally, any major endorsements or controversies involving either candidate could significantly impact the dynamics of the race, potentially altering current market trends.

Term Structure
Contract Odds Δ since publish Volume 24h
November 4 2026 7.2% +1.4¢ $5K View market →
November 4 2026 19.5% +7¢ $6K View market →
November 4 2026 18.5% -15.5¢ $12K View market →
November 4 2026 25% +1.5¢ $32K View market →
November 4 2026 0.4% -0.1¢ $2K View market →
November 4 2026 0.9% 0.0¢ $3K View market →
November 4 2026 1.7% +0.5¢ $3K View market →
November 4 2026 20.9% +1.2¢ $8K View market →
November 4 2026 6.5% +1.3¢ $8K View market →
November 4 2026 5% +2.6¢ $6K View market →
Updated 4min ago