Workers displaced from AI-exposed jobs since 2025 are struggling to get rehired, and Goldman says the pattern looks familiar
Goldman Sachs has spent years studying what happens to Americans who lose their jobs to technology. Its latest finding: the first wave of workers pushed out of AI-exposed roles is following the same rough path.
That path does not end well, at least not quickly. Goldman economist Pierfrancesco Mei described the damage from earlier tech-driven layoffs as “long-lasting,” and he now sees comparable effects showing up among people displaced by AI.
A slower road back to work
Mei’s April 2026 note looked at workers who lost jobs in AI-exposed occupations since 2025. He compared them with other displaced workers who were let go for different reasons.
The AI-exposed group took about a month longer to land a new position. The bigger number is the one-year mark. Workers displaced from AI-exposed jobs were roughly 10 percentage points more likely to still be out of work a full year after their layoff.
Mei wrote that these effects are “comparable in magnitude” to what Goldman measured during previous rounds of technological change. The bank’s research draws on four decades of data on Americans who lost work to technology.
How big the problem could get
Goldman’s baseline scenario suggests that around 9% of US workers, roughly 15 million people, may be displaced by AI over the next decade. The bank’s research also flags an additional drag of about 3% from slower hiring.
Net job losses attributed to AI ran at around 11,000 per month as of June 2026, down from 16,000 earlier in the year.
Layoff announcements tell a louder story. In September 2026, AI was cited in 21% of announced layoffs, and the tech sector accounted for 29% of total job cuts that month.
The jobless growth warning
In October 2025, Mei and fellow Goldman economist David Mericle warned about the risk of “jobless growth,” a scenario where output rises but employment does not keep pace. Their argument was that AI’s full effect on the labor market might stay hidden while the economy is growing, with the real test potentially coming in a downturn.
Goldman’s research also points to particular vulnerability among entry-level and younger workers, including Generation Z.
