A new research note argues crypto's global footprint makes US midterm politics less decisive than many investors assume
The US likes to think of itself as the center of the crypto universe. Grayscale’s latest research suggests the universe is considerably bigger than that.
In a research note published on October 28, 2026, Grayscale Investments estimated that the United States accounts for approximately 15-20% of global crypto activity. By that math, roughly 80-85% of transactions happen somewhere else.
The numbers behind the note
The note was authored by Zach Pandl, Grayscale’s Head of Research. It puts a figure on something that tends to get lost in American headlines: most crypto users are not American.
Grayscale says about 36% of the Bitcoin hashrate is located in the US. Hashrate is the combined computing power that miners devote to securing the Bitcoin network, so this is a measure of who is doing the heavy lifting.
On Ethereum, about 31% of full nodes sit in the US. Full nodes are the computers that store and verify a complete copy of the blockchain, independently checking that everyone is playing by the rules.
Put those figures side by side and a clear picture emerges. The US builds and runs a disproportionate share of crypto’s machinery, but most of the people actually using that machinery live abroad.
Why Grayscale is making this point now
The timing is deliberate. The note landed shortly before the US midterm elections in November 2026, a moment when crypto investors tend to obsess over which party will control Congress.
Grayscale’s argument is that this obsession may be somewhat misplaced. Because digital assets are inherently global, the firm contends that domestic political changes are largely inconsequential for the sector’s growth.
The note frames the crypto economy as resilient to shifts in US regulation. If the US accounts for a fifth or less of activity, then even a sharp domestic policy swing leaves the large majority of the market operating under other rules entirely.
The domestic backdrop is not especially rosy, either. The US crypto economy contracted by about 2.2% year-over-year as of June 2026, according to the research findings. Meanwhile, Grayscale’s framing holds that the crypto economy keeps thriving abroad.
One area where the US still carries outsized weight is exchange-traded products. Inflows into US spot Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs continue to play a critical role in market activity, giving American capital a meaningful voice even if American users are a minority on-chain.
The mismatch between infrastructure and usage
The gap between 15-20% of activity and 36% of hashrate is the most revealing part of the report. It points to a market where the US functions more as a host than a hub.
Ethereum’s node distribution tells a similar story. Nearly a third of the network’s verifiers are based in the US, but that does not translate into a third of the economic activity flowing through the chain.
What this means for investors and policymakers
For investors, the most practical takeaway is about where growth may come from. If 80-85% of activity is international, then trends abroad could matter more to network usage than any single US policy decision.
The research findings point to regions seeing heightened growth in stablecoin adoption and decentralized finance, or DeFi, applications. DeFi refers to lending, trading and other financial services run by code on blockchains rather than through traditional intermediaries.
Still, the US is not irrelevant, and Grayscale’s own figures make that clear. Hosting 36% of Bitcoin hashrate means American energy and regulatory policy can affect network security in a real way. Hosting 31% of Ethereum full nodes gives the country meaningful weight in how that network is verified.
Then there is the ETF channel. US spot Bitcoin and Ethereum ETF inflows remain a key on-ramp for new capital, which means American investors can influence prices even while American users represent a modest slice of transactions.
Grayscale’s broader message is that crypto has already outgrown any single jurisdiction. The US remains an important player with an outsized hand in running the networks. It just is not the only one at the table, and by these estimates, it is not even most of the table.
