IMF warns AI could disrupt 40% of jobs, keeps growth near 3%

The global economy has found an unlikely support beam: the race to build artificial intelligence. According to IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva, heavy investment in AI infrastructure is a key reason global growth is holding at approximately 3%.

The catch is that the same technology keeping the lights on may also rearrange who gets paid to work under them. Georgieva warned that AI could augment, downgrade, or eliminate about 40% of jobs worldwide.

She made the remarks on October 12, 2026, at the IMF-World Bank Annual Meetings in Bangkok.

Growth holds, with Asia doing the heavy lifting

Georgieva said AI infrastructure spending is helping sustain global growth at around 3% in 2026, even as the world wrestles with ongoing energy supply challenges.

Asian economies are positioned as the biggest beneficiaries. Demand for semiconductors, hardware, and related infrastructure is flowing directly into their factories and supply chains.

AI investment is adding an estimated 0.5 to 1 percentage point to growth in advanced Asian economies, and 0.2 to 0.8 percentage points to emerging Asian economies.

The IMF also identified the US, China, and India as the leading producers of AI, with several other Asian economies benefiting from supplying the physical backbone behind them.

The “slow-moving tsunami” in the labor market

Georgieva framed AI’s labor-market impact with a memorable image.

“slow-moving tsunami”

The headline figure is that about 40% of jobs globally may be affected. In advanced economies, the share rises to 60%. In lower-income countries, the estimated impact falls to between 23% and 26% of employment.

Georgieva’s framing covers jobs that could be augmented, downgraded, or eliminated, which is a much broader category than outright job losses.

The US offers an early preview

Roughly 10% of US jobs now demand AI skills, and those roles typically come with higher wages. Meanwhile, routine jobs are declining. Lower-paying roles in construction and data centers are increasing, as AI facilities need to be physically built and staffed.

What this means for governments, workers, and markets

Georgieva tied the labor shift directly to policy, highlighting implications for education, taxation, and public finance.

Many tax systems lean heavily on income from wages, so a shift in how work is structured and paid could ripple into how governments fund themselves.

The uneven exposure across countries matters too. Advanced economies, with 60% of jobs potentially affected, face the sharpest near-term adjustment, while lower-income nations, at 23% to 26%, risk being left further behind if they cannot participate in the productivity upside.