Iran closes Strait of Hormuz, casting doubt on US blockade lift

Senior Iranian lawmaker Ebrahim Azizi warned that the Strait of Hormuz has returned to its previous closed status. The market on whether Trump will announce the U.S. blockade has been lifted by May 31 sits at 85% YES.

Azizi’s statement casts doubt on any imminent easing of tensions. The April 19 market is at 11% YES, while May 31 remains at 85%. The gap between 17.5% and 82% suggests traders expect a resolution sometime between late April and late May, not in the immediate days ahead.

The UK warship market for passage by April 30 is at 8% YES, consistent with Azizi’s warning about the strait’s closed status. Combined 24-hour USDC volume across these markets is $33,928, with liquidity indicating moderate but not heavy trader conviction.

Azizi’s comments signal that Tehran isn’t shifting its position, which directly affects the probability of a diplomatic breakthrough before April 19. At 11¢, a YES share pays $1 if Trump announces by April 19, a 5.5x return. That bet only makes sense if you believe meaningful progress happens within three days.

Watch for official statements or social media posts from Trump on the blockade. Pentagon operational updates could also move these markets, particularly any signals of changed enforcement posture.