In 2026, the traditional safe havens of U.S. Treasurys, the Japanese yen, and gold have not provided the expected protection during market upheavals. The ongoing conflict in Iran, which began in February 2026, has created inflationary pressures and fiscal uncertainties that have undermined the typical risk-off appeal of these assets. U.S. Treasury yields have risen, with 10-year yields nearing 4.0-4.1%, while Japanese yen depreciated to multi-decade lows despite significant interventions by the Bank of Japan. Gold, which reached a peak in January 2026, has seen its price consolidate around $4,400-$4,700 per ounce, influenced by a stronger U.S. dollar and higher real yields.

Key Takeaways

• Market behavior suggests that traditional safe havens like gold, U.S. Treasurys, and the yen have not performed as expected amid geopolitical tensions.
• Pricing indicates a reduced likelihood of gold reaching higher targets, with a moderate decrease in YES probabilities for prices hitting $4,600.
• The Japanese yen’s weakness and rising U.S. Treasury yields reflect challenges to their safe-haven status during the ongoing conflict.

What to Watch

Developments in the Middle East may prove critical, as a formal peace treaty could further impact the safe-haven premium of assets like gold. The Federal Reserve’s monetary policy decisions, particularly any indication of prolonged high interest rates, may also affect these markets. Additionally, interventions by major central banks and changes in gold reserves could influence future price movements. Market participants will be keenly observing responses from the Federal Reserve, the Bank of Japan, and other key financial institutions.

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