Iran denies uranium enrichment concession amid Strait of Hormuz tensions

Trump’s claim that Iran agreed to a uranium enrichment concession has no confirmation from Tehran. The market for Iran agreeing to end enrichment by April 30 is at 48.4% YES, up from 35% a day ago.

Market reaction

Iranian MP Seyyed Mahmoud Nabavian announced a toll system for the Strait of Hormuz, a signal that has pushed up expectations Trump might lift the blockade. The May 31 market is at 94% YES. Tehran’s denial of any uranium agreement, though, weighs on the permanent peace deal by April 22, now at 38.5% YES.

Why it matters

The uranium enrichment market has actual USDC daily volume of $23,824 and saw its largest move, a 3-point spike, at 5:48 PM. It takes $599 to move the price 5 percentage points, which means this is a thin market where traders are split on Iran’s actual position on enrichment.

The peace deal market trades $711,138 in actual USDC daily and shows more conviction: the May 31 sub-market dropped 10 points. Traders are pricing in continued friction over the next 45 days regardless of Trump’s optimistic statements.

What to watch

At 39¢, a YES share for Iran ending enrichment by April 30 pays $1 if resolved, a potential 2.55x return. That bet requires a diplomatic breakthrough within 14 days, which is hard to square with Tehran’s current public denials.

Watch for Trump’s next communications and any official statements from Iranian leaders. Pakistan’s mediation efforts and any shifts in Iran’s public stance or military posture could move these markets quickly.

API access

Get prediction market intelligence as a structured API feed. Early access waitlist.