Iran leadership stable despite assassination attempt on Khamenei

The assassination attempt on Ali Khamenei hasn’t destabilized Iran’s leadership. The market on the regime falling by May 31 sits at 3.4% YES, down from 4% a day ago.

The odds of the regime falling by April 30 are even lower, at 0.5% YES, halved from 1% a day ago. Mojtaba Khamenei stepped into his father’s role without visible disruption, and traders have priced that in. The gap between the April 30 and May 31 markets shows minimal expectation for collapse in the next month, with 38 days left until the May 31 resolution.

Volume tells the story. The April 30 market has $1,347,847 in face value but only $9,300 in actual USDC traded. It takes $34,065 to move this market 5 points, a thick order book. The May 31 market requires $11,290 for a 5-point shift, with $27,933 in actual USDC traded, less liquid but still active.

Mojtaba’s swift succession and the government’s layered structure have kept power intact during ongoing US-Israeli airstrikes. Traders betting on regime change face steep odds for a near-term payoff. Buying YES at 3¢ pays $1 if it resolves, a 33x return, but that requires believing in rapid deterioration within 38 days.

The signals to track: IRGC defections or visible internal fractures. Those would reprice these markets fast. Without them, the order books are stacked heavily toward stability.

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