Iran marks 100 days since crackdown with regime stability unchanged

Iran has reached 100 days since its January crackdown on protests. The market on whether the Iranian regime will fall by April 30 sits at 1% YES, unchanged from yesterday.

Market reaction

The May 31 market is at 3% YES, while June 30 odds are at 6.5% YES, meaning traders price any regime change as more probable beyond the near term.

The Reza Pahlavi entry market for June 30 is at 4.5% YES, up half a point in the last 24 hours. The December 31 contract trades at 13.5% YES. That 9-point gap between June and December implies traders expect any developments to come in the second half of the year.

Why it matters

The regime fall market has $16,644 in USDC traded, but it takes $35,587 to move the price 5 points, meaning the book is thick enough to absorb speculative bets without large swings. The Pahlavi entry market has combined daily volume of $1,803 and requires only $5,877 to shift 5 points, making it thinner and more volatile.

What to watch

At 1¢, a YES share pays $1 if the regime falls by April 30, with only 12 days left and no clear catalyst. The crackdown and economic deterioration add pressure, but without visible fractures within the regime itself, the market stays near the floor. Watch for reports of IRGC defections or changes in the Supreme Leader’s public visibility. Signs of fragmentation within Iran’s power structure would be the most direct trigger for price movement.

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