Iran poll shows strong opposition to Western demands, impacting prediction markets

A recent poll showing strong Iranian public opposition to Western demands has pushed prediction market odds lower on two related contracts. The probability of the Iranian regime falling by June 30 sits at 7.5% YES, down from 8% yesterday, while the likelihood of Iran agreeing to end uranium enrichment by April 30 has dropped to 4% YES.

Market reaction

The poll results indicate widespread support for the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and resistance to concessions. The Iranian regime fall market has $33,440 in daily USDC volume, with the largest recent move being a 1-point spike. On the uranium enrichment side, the agreement market collapsed from 56% last week to 4% now, with six days left until resolution. The poll found 79% opposition to halting enrichment. Daily USDC volume on that contract is $4,865, with a 2-point spike in recent trading amid the broader downward move.

Why it matters

The regime fall market requires $13,929 to move the price 5 points, suggesting moderate resistance against price swings. The uranium market’s $2,731 depth at the same threshold makes it a thinner market, more susceptible to large individual trades pushing the price around.

What to watch

A YES share on the uranium agreement at 4¢ pays $1 if Iran agrees by April 30, a potential 25x return. But justifying that bet requires expecting a dramatic policy shift in the next six days, which the polling data directly contradicts. Key signals: any announcements from Iranian leadership or shifts in U.S. policy. With the IRGC maintaining its hard-line stance and 79% of the Iranian public backing resistance to enrichment concessions, a breakthrough before the April 30 deadline looks unlikely.

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