Iran rejects US peace proposal, dimming hopes for April 22 deal

Iranian parliament speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf announced the rejection of a US 15-point proposal delivered through Pakistan. The odds for a US-Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026, now sit at 19.5% YES.

Confidence in a near-term peace deal dropped sharply across all timeframes. The April 22 market fell from 40% to 19.5%. The April 30 market declined from 61% to 36.5%. The largest drop was in the June 30 market, which fell from 81% to 67.5% in a single day.

The rejection reinforces a continued stalemate rather than progress. The spread between April 30 and May 31 shows traders pricing in a potential catalyst by late May, with odds jumping 21 points across that window. But the immediate term looks grim, with only 4 days left before the April 22 deadline.

USDC volume hit $1,644,301 over the past 24 hours. The largest single move was a 5-point drop in the April 22 market at 5:56 PM. It takes $9,404 to move the price 5 points, meaning large individual trades can shift these markets substantially.

The rejection makes a deal by April 22 very unlikely. At 17.5¢, a YES share pays $1 if a deal is reached, a 5x return. For that bet to pay off, you’d need to believe in a rapid diplomatic reversal, which is hard to justify given the public rejection and current hostilities.

Watch for new statements from the Iranian Supreme National Security Council or further US diplomatic overtures through intermediaries like Pakistan. Any escalation or fresh negotiation attempts would directly affect these odds.

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