Trump announced that Iran is cooperating with the US to remove sea mines in the Strait of Hormuz. The US-Iran permanent peace deal by April 22 market is now at 39.5% YES, up from 12% a week ago.
Market reaction
The April 22 sub-market jumped to 39.5%, while the April 30 market is at 56.5%, up from 17% a week ago. The May 31 and June 30 sub-markets also moved up, now at 73% and 81%, respectively.
Why it matters
The US-Iran market trades with combined daily volume of $2.48M face value, or $711K in actual USDC. A 4-point spike hit the April 22 sub-market at 12:18 AM. The order book shows $16,312 is needed to move the odds by 5 percentage points, which indicates real liquidity behind these prices.
Trump’s statement points to concrete de-escalation: mine removal is a physical, verifiable action, not just rhetoric. At 15¢, a YES share for the April 22 market pays $1 if resolved, a 6.67x return. That price implies traders see a real but still unlikely chance of a formal deal within six days.
What to watch
Any announcements from Trump or Iranian officials about formal agreements or sanctions relief. Confirmation of a permanent deal, especially from the Islamabad talks, would move odds sharply.
