Iran opened its airspace and several airports on Saturday, following a ceasefire agreement with the US that began April 7. The market for Iran striking Israel by April 30 currently sits at 100.0% YES.
The airspace reopening has not moved the Iran military action by April 30 market, which remains locked at 100% YES. Traders appear unconvinced that the ceasefire has resolved tensions, given ongoing allegations of violations.
The Iranian regime fall by April 30 market dropped to 1.4% YES, down from 2% yesterday, a 10% expected move decrease in the likelihood of regime collapse. The gradual reopening of airports and airspace tracks with this decline.
USDC traded in the regime fall market is at $24,583, with face value at $825,952. The cost to move the market by 5 points is $24,000, pointing to institutional positioning.
The airspace reopening matters because it shows Iran complying with ceasefire terms, though under strain. The move does not eliminate the risk of renewed conflict. At current odds, traders betting on military action would need a significant shift in diplomatic or military posture to justify a YES share currently paying out at 100¢.
Watch for US-Iran announcements on ceasefire extensions or violations. Iran’s response to alleged breaches and US diplomatic moves will drive these markets in the coming days.
