Iran ships 11M barrels of oil despite US Hormuz blockade

Iran has shipped 11 million barrels of oil since the US imposed its Hormuz blockade. The likelihood of Hormuz traffic returning to normal by April 30 now sits at 57.5% YES, down from 60% just 24 hours ago.

Market reaction

The 11 million barrel figure suggests enforcement is looser than advertised. The April 30 sub-market dropped 4 points as traders priced in apparent gaps in the blockade. The May 31 market is stable at 84.5% YES.

Why it matters

Iran’s ability to export oil despite US measures complicates the supply picture. The WTI Crude Oil market predicting $160 oil by April has no active trading data yet, which suggests traders are waiting for clearer escalation or enforcement action before committing.

What to watch

Trade data shows $10,250 in USDC traded daily in the April 30 Hormuz market, with just $354 needed to move the price 5 points. That thin order book means a single large order could swing odds significantly.

Traders betting on normalization by April 30 need to weigh these enforcement gaps. At 50.5¢, a YES share pays $1 if traffic normalizes by April 30, a 1.98x return. That bet requires confidence in a diplomatic breakthrough within 14 days. Watch for CENTCOM statements, Iranian naval actions, and any announcements from Trump or NATO allies.

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