Iran shuts down Strait of Hormuz, no US-Iran meeting scheduled

Iran shut down the Strait of Hormuz, and the anticipated US-Iran meeting has not been scheduled. Trump’s Hormuz blockade lift by May 31 is at 82% YES, down from 90% a day ago.

Market reaction

Trump’s announcement of a blockade lift by May 31 sits at 82%, with a 5-point drop over the past day. The April 19 sub-market plummeted to 8% YES, a 20-point drop in the last 24 hours. The 70-point gap between April 19 and May 31 implies traders expect a potential resolution in the weeks between those dates, not before.

The odds of Trump meeting Iran by April 30 have sunk to 10.9% YES, down from 22% a day ago. Traders are pricing in the absence of any scheduled diplomatic meetings.

Why it matters

USDC volume is at $29,602. The order book shows $1,419 needed to move the May 31 sub-market by 5 points, a thin market where a single large order can shift the odds. The largest move in the last 24 hours was a 6-point drop in the April 19 market at 6:05 PM, likely caused by a significant sell order.

The Strait closure and lack of scheduled US-Iran talks represent a clear backslide in relations. For traders betting on a near-term resolution, this is bad news. At 13¢, a YES share for a US-Iran meeting by April 30 pays $1 if it resolves, a 7.7x return. That payout requires a swift diplomatic breakthrough with no current signs of one.

What to watch

Any official announcements from Trump or the Iranian government on the blockade or new diplomatic engagements could move these markets fast.

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