Iranian official Baghaei has indicated that discussions with Qatar regarding an interim agreement with the United States are expected to occur on Wednesday in Doha. This meeting aims to address the implementation of a 60-day memorandum of understanding (MoU), which involves the release of Iranian assets frozen abroad. The dialogue is part of ongoing efforts to de-escalate tensions between the U.S. and Iran following recent military confrontations in the Gulf of Arabia. The proposed discussions with Qatar as a mediator suggest a shift towards diplomatic engagement after a fragile ceasefire was reached.

Key Takeaways

• Market activity suggests an increased probability of US-Iran diplomatic talks occurring by July 3, 2026, with current pricing at 21.5% YES.
• The likelihood of the next diplomatic meeting happening in the UAE by September 30, 2026, appears to have decreased significantly, with current pricing at 0%.
• The planned location of Doha for the talks is consistent with expectations that the next meeting will not occur in the UAE.

What to Watch

Observers will focus on the outcome of the Doha talks on Wednesday, which may indicate further diplomatic progress or setbacks. Key actors include U.S. President Donald Trump and Iranian Foreign Minister Seyed Abbas Araghchi. Any official announcements or statements from mediators or involved governments could significantly influence market perceptions and pricing. The continuation of the fragile ceasefire and the release of frozen Iranian assets are critical factors that could shape future developments in US-Iran relations.

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