Iranian forces turn back two oil tankers in Strait of Hormuz

Iranian armed forces have turned back two oil tankers in the Strait of Hormuz, pushing the US escorts through Hormuz by April 30 market to 17.5% YES, up from 18% yesterday.

The escort market has seen $8,310 in daily USDC volume, with a $260 cost to move the price 5 points. The largest move was a 4-point spike, consistent with traders pricing in increased military presence after the interception.

The UK warships through Hormuz market sits at 8% YES. Volume is lower at $1,412 in daily USDC traded, with a $304 cost to move 5 points, indicating thin but present interest in allied military responses.

Iranian interceptions of commercial shipping raise the probability of a protective U.S. naval response. A YES share at 17.5¢ pays $1 if a US escort occurs by April 30, a 4.5x return. That bet depends on continued or escalating tensions over the next 12 days.

Watch for CENTCOM statements or White House announcements on naval operations near the strait. Any confirmed escort deployment or force posture change would move these markets quickly.

Get prediction market intelligence as a structured API feed. Early access waitlist.