Iranian lawmaker suggests preemptive strikes against US possible

Iranian lawmaker Fadahossein Maleki has suggested preemptive strikes against the US are possible. The Polymarket contract on the Iranian regime falling by June 30 has moved to 8.5% YES, up from 8% yesterday.

The June 30 regime fall market is up from 6% a week ago to 8.5% YES. The April 30 market sits at 0.4%, down from 1% a day ago. The May 31 market is at 3.9% YES, down from 5% yesterday.

The term structure between April 30 and May 31 shows a 4-point jump, meaning traders price meaningfully more risk in the next month than in the next two weeks. The June 30 market’s climb from 6% to 8.5% over the past week tracks with Maleki’s aggressive rhetoric and suggests traders see potential instability on a longer timeline.

Real money is moving through these markets: $35,587 in USDC traded daily on the June 30 contract and $42,064 across the shorter-term markets. The cost to move prices 5 points on the June 30 contract is $16,830, which means the price movements reflect genuine positioning rather than thin-book noise.

Maleki’s rhetoric may point to increasing internal pressure within the regime. At 8.5¢, a YES bet pays $1 if the regime falls by June 30, an 11.8x return. For that payout to justify the risk, you’d need to believe in serious escalation or internal fracturing within two months. The 2.5-point weekly move on the June 30 contract is a real shift in how traders are pricing regime stability.

Watch for IRGC actions or changes in US military posture. A sudden defection or a high-profile assassination could move these odds sharply. Any new diplomatic efforts from Pakistan or China would also matter.

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