Iranian media reports only three ships transit Strait of Hormuz in 12 hours

Iranian media reports only three ships have passed through the Strait of Hormuz in the last 12 hours. The Polymarket contract for Strait of Hormuz traffic normalization by April 30 is at 29.0% YES, down from 29% yesterday.

Three transits in 12 hours is roughly a fifth of the strait’s typical rate of about 15 transits per day. The market for 80 ships transiting by the end of April collapsed from 29% to 29.0% YES in a single session.

The largest single move was a 25-point drop at 11:30 PM, likely triggered by the Iranian media report. The market has traded $21,157 in USDC, and the cost to move the price 5 percentage points is $2,087, which points to strong conviction behind the bearish position. The drop reflects the ongoing US-Iran standoff and trader concern about blockades or military actions restricting vessel movement.

A YES share at 29.0¢ pays $1 if traffic normalizes by April 30, a 25x return. That bet requires a sudden diplomatic breakthrough with only days left on the clock.

Watch for diplomatic signals between the US and Iran, particularly from the IRGC or US Central Command. Any announcement of resumed talks or de-escalation could shift odds, but absent that, the contract will likely continue drifting toward zero.

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