Iranian President asserts nuclear rights, impacting April enrichment deal odds

The Iranian President told ISNA that Iran will not give up its nuclear rights, and the market for Iran agreeing to end enrichment by April 30 has dropped to 16.3%, down from 50% just a day ago.

Market reaction

The probability of Iran agreeing to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile by April 30 fell to 29.0%, down from 65% a day ago. The sharpest single move was a 12-point drop at 10:27 AM. The market for surrendering the stockpile by December 31 sits at 64.5%. The spread between the April and June 30 contracts widened by 27 points, meaning traders expect negotiations to drag past April.

Why it matters

The enrichment agreement market has $34,430 in daily USDC volume, with a shallow order book where just $74 can move the price 5 percentage points. That makes it vulnerable to swings from small trades. The surrender market, at $138,694 in daily USDC volume, has deeper liquidity but still moved sharply on the news. A YES share on the enrichment agreement is priced at 16.3¢, which would pay 3.57x if an agreement is reached.

What to watch

The President’s comments are a direct obstacle to any April deal. Official IAEA statements, new US sanctions, or military posturing could shift these probabilities quickly. The next likely catalyst is any announcement of resumed negotiations or a change in position from the Supreme Leader or the US administration.

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