IRGC claims control of Strait of Hormuz amid ongoing US blockade

The IRGC’s joint military command announced that control of the Strait of Hormuz has “returned to its previous state” due to the ongoing US blockade. The market for UK warship deployment through the Strait by April 30 sits at 6% YES, unchanged from earlier levels.

Market reaction

The UK warship market holds at 6%, but the IRGC’s claim makes signals from the UK Ministry of Defence worth watching in the coming days. The market for Trump announcing the lifting of the blockade by May 31 sits at 86% YES, meaning traders still expect a resolution.

Why it matters

Daily trading volume on the UK warship market is $2,086 in USDC, and just $427 is enough to move the odds by 5 percentage points. The market is thin and susceptible to large swings from individual trades. The biggest move in the past 24 hours was a 1-point drop, so while the market is stable now, new information could change that quickly.

The IRGC’s statement signals that the situation is tense and unresolved. With the US maintaining its blockade, rapid de-escalation looks unlikely. At 6¢, a YES share on the UK warship market pays $1 if it resolves, a potential 16.6x return. For that bet to pay off, traders would need to believe in a significant shift in UK military policy within the next 14 days.

What to watch

Official statements from the UK Ministry of Defence or allied naval activity in the Gulf could be the next catalyst for a market move.

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