IRGC Navy Commander claims an enemy ship attempted to cross the Strait of Hormuz during the ceasefire but was forced to retreat. The Polymarket contract on whether the United Kingdom will send warships through the Strait by April 30 sits at 9.5% YES, down from 12% a week ago.
Market reaction
The UK warship deployment market has seen subdued activity, with daily USDC volume at $2,086. It takes only $427 to move the price by 5 percentage points. The largest movement in the last 24 hours was a single 1-point dip.
Why it matters
The Strait of Hormuz handles roughly a fifth of global oil transit. The drop from 12% to 9.5% over the past week suggests traders expect the UK to hold off on sending warships absent a major escalation. The IRGC’s confrontational posture could deter immediate UK involvement, unless allied pressure mounts or the ceasefire collapses.
What to watch
A YES share at 5.5¢ pays out $1, a 18x return. That bet requires believing in a rapid escalation that forces the UK’s hand within the next two weeks. Key triggers: official statements from the UK Ministry of Defence, naval activity announcements from allied nations, or any shift in IRGC or US naval posture near the Strait.
API CTA
