Borrowing costs, dollar strength and broader investor appetite for risk remain more decisive factors, argues Global Settlement Network CEO.
Bitcoin traded around $77,302 early Tuesday after recovering above $77,600, as US midterm elections put political developments in focus.
Yet, the outcome of the vote is unlikely to be the main driver of crypto prices, as financial conditions and global liquidity will continue to influence investor appetite for risk, Ryan Kirkley, co-founder and CEO of Global Settlement Network (GSN), said in a Tuesday note.
“I think people give elections far too much credit for what happens to Bitcoin. Political headlines can absolutely move the market, particularly when traders are betting on a friendlier regulatory environment, but you can’t ignore the fact that crypto is trading in a global liquidity market,” Kirkley said.
“If borrowing costs remain high, the dollar strengthens or investors start pulling back from risk, a favorable election result isn’t going to magically reverse those pressures,” he explained.
Kirkley said institutional adoption is increasingly supported by practical economic considerations, including cheaper cross-border payments, more efficient settlement and the movement of financial assets onto blockchain infrastructure.
While he expects volatility around election results, he sees regulatory clarity as a more important factor in determining whether institutional demand develops into meaningful adoption in 2027.
On congressional oversight, Kirkley said changes in committee leadership could influence how aggressively lawmakers challenge the SEC and CFTC.
“But the bigger issue is whether lawmakers can finally draw a sensible line between their responsibilities. If you’re a bank looking to settle transactions using stablecoins or move assets onchain, you need to know who’s regulating the activity, what your obligations are and whether those rules will still apply five years from now,” he added.
The chief of GSN, which develops blockchain-based financial infrastructure for banks and other regulated institutions, said crypto companies are seeking the same level of regulatory predictability available in established financial markets, rather than preferential treatment.
Kirkley expects Congress to make another serious effort to pass crypto market structure legislation in 2027, although he warned that major disagreements remain over which digital assets fall under securities laws, the CFTC’s authority and the oversight of platforms dealing with traditional and tokenized assets.
He said lawmakers should concentrate on establishing clear requirements for custody, settlement finality and ownership, even if that means pursuing narrower legislation.
“A workable framework that institutions can actually implement is worth considerably more than a sweeping piece of legislation that never becomes law,” Kirkley said.
