Nvidia executive Ian Buck leads CEO succession odds at 35.5% following Huang exit

Nvidia executive Ian Buck has emerged as the leading candidate to replace Jensen Huang as the company’s permanent CEO, with a 35.5% implied probability, according to a November 12 prediction market analysis from The Action Network.

Interim CEO Colette Kress ranks second with a 25.5% probability, followed by Arm CEO René Haas at 9.1% and AMD CEO Lisa Su at 2.4%.

The Action Network said its estimates combine prediction market pricing from Kalshi and Polymarket, weighted by each platform’s historical forecasting accuracy, alongside trading activity and historical evidence.

“With Ian Buck leading our analysis at a 35.5% implied probability, followed by interim CEO Colette Kress at 25.5%, NVIDIA’s succession remains far from settled,” said Ben Mendelowitz, a prediction markets analyst at The Action Network.

The analysis follows Huang’s resignation as Nvidia’s president, CEO and board member after 33 years leading the company. According to Nvidia’s SEC filing, the board accepted his resignation on November 11 and appointed Kress as interim CEO and Harvey C. Jones as board chair.

Nvidia confirmed the leadership transition on November 12, announcing that its board had begun searching for a permanent successor and would consider both internal and external candidates.

Mendelowitz also noted that an earlier analysis showed the implied probability of Huang leaving Nvidia jumping from 13.2% to 76.6% between November 9 and November 12.

Nvidia is scheduled to report its third quarter fiscal 2027 earnings on November 17.