Pakistan’s Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif spoke with Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian, and the Polymarket contract for a US-Iran permanent peace deal by April 30 now sits at 39.5% YES, up from 22% a week ago.
Traders are also watching the Iran enriched uranium surrender by April 30 contract, now at 38.0% YES, up from 28% a week ago. The Trump agreeing to Iranian demands in April market holds at 37% YES.
The April 30 peace deal contract saw a 5-point drop at 5:27 PM yesterday, a sign of skepticism even as the diplomatic picture looks better on paper. The peace deal by May 31 contract trades at 58.5% YES, which implies traders expect any deal is more likely to come together in May than April.
The peace market has $1.6M in daily USDC volume, and it takes $8,245 to move prices 5 points. The largest single move was that same 5-point drop, consistent with trader caution about regional tension.
Sharif has been on a broader diplomatic tour, and Pakistan has acted as an intermediary between the US and Iran before. At 39.5¢, a YES share pays $1 if a deal is reached by April 30, a 2.78x return. That bet requires believing Sharif’s efforts will produce a formalized agreement within weeks.
The next thing to watch is whether Pakistan announces dates or venues for direct US-Iran talks. Statements from Saudi Arabia, Qatar, or Turkey backing Pakistan’s mediation role would also likely move these contracts.
