Field Marshal Asim Munir’s visit to Tehran to facilitate new US-Iran talks has the possibility of a ceasefire by April 21 priced at 10.5% YES.
The April 21 ceasefire market sits at 10.5% YES, while the April 30 market is priced at 38.5% YES. That 16-point gap between the April 22 and April 30 deadlines suggests traders expect a catalyst in the back half of the month.
The market for US-Iran diplomatic meeting locations prices the chance of no qualifying meeting by June 30 at just 2.3% YES. Munir’s Tehran visit makes that low number look reasonable; Pakistan acting as intermediary increases the likelihood of a formal meeting taking place.
Daily actual USDC volume on the ceasefire market is $686,627, concentrated around the April 30 contract. In the last 24 hours, the largest moves were an 8-point drop at 3:32 PM and a 4-point spike at 3:38 PM, six minutes apart. That kind of volatility points to active repositioning on incoming news.
At 11¢, a YES share for an April 21 ceasefire pays $1, a 9x return. For that bet to make sense, traders would need concrete commitments or rapid de-escalation in rhetoric from both sides. Hegseth’s next Pentagon briefing is later this week; any shift in language toward diplomacy could move these markets. Watch for announcements from the US or Iranian sides signaling new talks or softened positions.
