Persian Gulf shipping drops to 5 ships daily amid IRGC blockade

Shipping in the Persian Gulf has dropped to just 5 ships per day, down from a pre-war average of 150. The Polymarket contract on Strait of Hormuz ship transits for April 13-19 sits at 0% YES, consistent with AFP’s reporting on the collapse in traffic.

## Market reaction

The market for under 10 ship transits through the Strait between April 13-19 is all but certain to resolve YES, currently at 0%. With only one day left, the probability of exceeding 10 ships is negligible. The traffic normalization by April market is also under pressure, with current disruptions likely extending beyond April.

## Why it matters

The IRGC’s blockade and ongoing hostilities have kept daily transits at 5, making a return to pre-conflict levels by the end of April improbable. The market for traffic normalization at end of April reflects this bearish outlook.

## What to watch

In the past 24 hours, only $14 in actual USDC traded in the fewer-than-10-ships market, despite a face value of $2,923. The largest price movement was a modest 2-point spike at 4:25 AM, driven by low volume. A small trade can easily shift prices in a market this thin.

The ongoing blockade and conflict are likely to keep transit numbers low. A YES share in the fewer-than-10-ships market at 0.4¢ pays $1 if resolved, a 250x return that the current reporting makes improbable to miss.

Watch for announcements from CENTCOM or the IRGC on changes in transit policy. A shift in operational language would be the first signal of movement in these markets.

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