Saudi Arabia’s ambassador to Yemen announced on Friday that Saudi-backed Yemeni forces have regained control of the Bab al-Mandab area, a strategic chokepoint on the Red Sea, from Houthi forces. This development follows recent military advances by the Yemeni forces in the region, reversing Houthi gains made along Yemen’s southwestern coast in September. The Houthi movement, supported by Iran, has not issued an immediate response to the ambassador’s statement, though Houthi media had previously denied losing control of the area.
Key Takeaways
- Market pricing suggests that the removal of Houthi forces from Bab al-Mandab by Saudi-backed Yemeni forces is seen as a setback for the Houthis, potentially diminishing the likelihood of their advancement into Aden.
- The probability of Houthi forces entering Aden by October 31, 2026, has decreased marginally, now standing at 7.5% from 8% a day ago and 10% a week ago.
- The longer-term outlook for Houthi entry into Aden by December 31, 2026, also reflects a decrease in confidence, with the probability now at 24.5%, down from 28% previously.
What to Watch
Observers will be closely monitoring any official responses or strategic shifts from the Houthi leadership, which could impact market pricing further. Developments around key locations such as Taiz, Lahj, or the Al-Anad Air Base may also influence perceptions of the Houthis’ capacity to reach Aden. Additionally, any escalation in air support from Saudi Arabia or reinforcements by the UAE could be consistent with a further reduction in the likelihood of a Houthi entrance into Aden.