On the Hugh Hewitt Show, Donald Trump announced his intent to strike Iran strongly tonight and tomorrow. This declaration reflects an ongoing escalation in the conflict between the United States and Iran, which has intensified since the 2026 Iran war began. Previously, the U.S. had resumed strikes following a failed ceasefire, targeting key Iranian locations to curb their military capabilities. Iran’s retaliatory actions have included drone and missile attacks on U.S. bases in the Middle East, further escalating tensions.

Key Takeaways

• Trump’s announcement suggests a potential escalation in military actions, which appears consistent with decreased likelihood of US-Iran peace talks.
• Market pricing reflects a decline in the probability of diplomatic meetings occurring by July 31, 2026, now standing at 25.5% YES.
• Historical context indicates that previous statements of aggressive intent have impacted the odds of peace talks, suggesting similar market responses now.

What to Watch

Observers should monitor any official responses from Iran, as well as potential further statements from U.S. officials that might indicate a shift towards or away from diplomatic engagement. Key indicators would include any announcements of resumed negotiations or additional military actions. Significant market movements could occur if there is confirmation of new diplomatic efforts or further escalation in military conflict.

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