Donald Trump announced new US-Iran talks starting Monday, paired with a threat to strike Iranian infrastructure if no deal is reached. The odds of a US-Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026, sit at 23.5% YES, down from 40% yesterday.
Traders reacted quickly to Trump’s statement across multiple markets. The April 22 permanent peace deal market dropped sharply, while the April 30 market is at 45.5%, down from 61% a day ago. The May 31 probability is at 63.5%, which suggests traders expect a resolution is more likely by late April or May than in the next few days.
The Iranian uranium enrichment agreement market also fell hard, with odds now at 32.8% YES, down from 50% yesterday. A YES share priced at 28¢ pays $1, a potential 3.6x return if Iran agrees to end enrichment by April 30.
The infrastructure strike threat matters because it raises the cost of concessions for Iran on nuclear enrichment and sanctions relief. The Iranian demands Trump agreement market is at 28.0% YES, with traders skeptical that Trump will agree to relief measures while simultaneously threatening military action.
This is a tier-1 source report. With only four days left until the April 22 ceasefire deadline, any confirmed breakdown in talks or military action would likely push these odds lower. For those betting on a peace deal, the current pricing reflects high risk with uncertain reward.
Watch Trump’s Truth Social posts and official announcements from the White House or Iranian state media. New sanctions or a shift in rhetoric could move these markets further. Oman and Pakistan’s mediation efforts are also worth tracking for signs of progress or collapse.
