Trump misses deadline, Strait of Hormuz remains closed, talks with Iran unconfirmed

President Trump failed to provide promised information by Saturday’s end, leaving the Strait of Hormuz closed and talks with Iran unconfirmed. The odds of Trump announcing a lift of the US blockade by April 19 now sit at 8%, down from 28% yesterday.

Market reaction

The May 31 market dropped too, with odds at 78%, down from 90% a day prior. The term structure shows a 70-point gap between April 19 and May 31, which means traders expect any resolution to come weeks from now, not days.

In the diplomatic meetings with Iran market, odds for a meeting by April 30 fell to 10.5% from 22%.

Why it matters

$29,602 changed hands across these markets, but the depth to move prices 5 points is only $1,419 for May 31 and $3,849 for April 19. These markets can be moved by relatively small trades. The largest single move was a 6-point drop at 6:05 PM yesterday, likely triggered by the unmet information deadline.

Trump’s silence after missing his own deadline is the main driver. Without new information, there’s no reason for prices to recover.

What to watch

At 8¢, a YES share in the April 19 market pays $1 if the blockade is lifted, a 12.5x return. For that bet to pay off, a breakthrough would need to happen in the next few days with no current signs of one. Watch for White House announcements or Trump’s Truth Social posts about upcoming talks or changes in blockade status. Those are the only realistic catalysts that could move these prices back up.