Trump optimistic on Iran deal, expects agreement “in a day or two”

Trump told Axios he’s optimistic about an Iran deal soon. The market for Trump agreeing to Iranian oil sanction relief in April is at 65% YES, up from 34% yesterday.

The Trump agreeing to Iranian oil sanction relief in April market picked up activity after Trump’s statement. His expectation of a deal “in a day or two” contrasts with previous estimates suggesting a six-month timeline. Odds sit at 65% YES, up from 28% a week ago.

The Trump’s Hormuz Blockade Announcement market is at 94.5% YES. Combined face value in the last 24 hours is $165,139, but only $33,928 in actual USDC, meaning relatively modest trades could still cause noticeable price swings.

Trump’s optimistic tone could be a pressure tactic aimed at Iran or a signal of genuine progress. A YES share at 65¢ pays $1 if resolved, a 2.78x return. That bet requires believing a breakthrough is close enough to happen before April ends.

Watch for official statements from the White House or Iranian leadership confirming deal terms. A Trump social media post or formal announcement could move these markets quickly.

Get prediction market intelligence as a structured API feed. Early access waitlist.